Time series modelling of peaks for hydrology

In your opinion/ based on your experience, what is the best time series model (AR,ARMA,ARMAX,ARIMAX,ARCH,GARCH, or others) that is able to better reproduce the peaks of a time series. And if so, could you please suggest me a R (but also Matlab or phyton) package to do so? I'm dealing with an hydrological time series, and predicting the discharge peaks is the most important thing when we are dealing with flood forecasting.

Thank you in advance.

The first two things I think about when approaching a time series project is how volatile is the data and what is my planning horizon. That will help you evaluate your modeling approach.

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