I am doing forecasting with auto.Arima with uni-variate data but my forecast is not correct. I have used all the steps correctly but the point forecast value is not coming out to be right. Please help me.
Here is my data:
s <- read.csv(url('https://ondemand.websol.barchart.com/getHistory.csv?apikey=c3122f072488a29c5279680b9a2cf88e&symbol=zs*1&type=dailyNearest&backAdjust=false&startDate=20100201'))
Here is my code:
data <- s[c(3, 7)]
summary(data)
data1.ts <- zoo(data[,2], seq(from = as.Date("2010-02-01"), to = as.Date("2022-05-13"), by = 1))
autoplot(data1.ts)
Arima Model:
fit_arima <- auto.arima(data1.ts, stepwise = FALSE, approximation = FALSE, trace = TRUE)
print(summary(fit_arima))
checkresiduals(fit_arima)
forecast_Arima <- forecast(fit_arima, h = 1)
forecast_Arima
Foreacst Value:
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
19126 976.4357 949.874 1002.997 935.813 1017.058