Seeking feedback on a blog post about Bayesian Risk Estimation

Hi All, I just wrote this blog post adapting methods taught by @drob about using the Beta Distribution to estimate probability. Would love feedback in general and on any of the following:

  • If you are not already well familiar with Bayesian methods, does the rationale for the workflow make sense?
  • If you are familiar with Bayesian methods, does the selection of the prior seem reasonable? What about rescaling the alpha and beta parameters to make the prior less informative?
  • Does the last figure and its "tug-of-war" analogy make sense?
  • Does it seem reasonable to use pop_under_five as a proxy for the beta parameter since we don't know the true denominator of live births (and hence survivals)?

I'm happy to exchange feedback for something you're working on too.


This topic was automatically closed 42 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.

If you have a query related to it or one of the replies, start a new topic and refer back with a link.