BM = rep(0,T)
n = 100
count = 0
for (i in 1:n){
X = rnorm(T,mu,sigma)
BM[1] = X[1]
for (j in 2:T){
BM[j] = BM[j-1]+X[j]
}
if (BM[T]>3) {count = count+1}
}count/n
count = 0
for (i in 1:n){
X[1] = 5
for (j in 2:(T+1)){
inc = sample(posinc,1)
X[j] = X[j-1]+inc
X[j] = max(X[j],0)
}
if (X[T+1]<10){count = count + 1}
}
count/n
install.packages("expm")
library(expm)
vect = c(0.6,0.3,0.4,0.7)
P = matrix(vect,2,2)
P%^%5
P%^%10
P%^%20
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ b ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
P5 = P%^%5
P5[1,2]
t = 24
lambda = 20
n = 1000
Y = rep(0,n)
for (i in 1:n){
Nt = rpois(1,lambda*t)
X = rexp(Nt,1)
Y[i] = sum(X)
}
mean(Y)
var(Y)
entries = c(0.3,0.7,0,0.4,0.6,0,1,0,0)
P = matrix(entries,3,3)
P = t(P)
P%^%2
P%^%3
P%^%5
P%^%20
P%^%100
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ d ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
P = matrix(0,6,6)
P[1,] = c(0.3,0.7,0,0,0,0)
P[2,] = c(0.5,0.5,0,0,0,0)
P[3,] = c(0.3,0.2,0,0,0,0.5)
P[4,] = c(0,0,0.8,0,0.2,0)
P[5,] = c(0,0,0,0.6,0,0.4)
P[6,] = c(0,0,0,0,0,1)
P
rowSums(P)
P%^%2
P%^%3
P%^%5
P%^%20
P%^%100
P%^%1000
P%^%10000
n = 1e5
T = 90
X = matrix(0,T,n)
for (k in 1:n){
posinc = c(2,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,-1,-1)
X[1,k] = 20+sample(posinc,1)
}
for (k in 1:n){
for (j in 2:T){
posinc = c(2,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,-1,-1)
X[j,k] = X[j-1,k]+sample(posinc,1)
X[j,k] = max(X[j,k],0)
}
}
mean((X[T,]>5)*(X[T,]<15))
mean(X[60,])
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Question 2 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
t = 12
lambda = 10
n = 1e5
Y = rep(0,n)
for (i in 1:n){
Nt = rpois(1,lambda*t)
X = rgamma(Nt,1,1)
Y[i] = sum(X)
}
mean(Y>100)