It may help to think of this abstractly.
1.Choose a metric to measure the model, such as AIC
2. Apply the model multiple times varying the phi
or phi-range
argument to the trend()
part of ETS
3. Select the model with the lowest AIC
(for example)
4. Choose a metric, such as RMSE
to evaluate the fit against the test set
5. Repeat with the next best AIC to see whether the fit is as good, better or worse