fable: Combination Models, Methodology and Simple Numerical Example

(A): They are not equivalent. The matrix variance calculation is for Var(X+Y) and the scalars are already applied to X and Y. The forecast method here is recursively computed, so it would first compute aX and bX (simply scaling the models) and then it computes the sum.

(B): They shouldn't be the same, for reasons that you indicate. Can you provide a minimal reproducible example?